Base on land use maps in 2000, 2005 and 2010 of the coastal areas of Shandong Province and land use maps in 2020 and 2030 simulated by the Spatial-Markov model, ecological risk index was built based on landscape pattern indices. In specific, the study area was divided into 811 units with a size of 10 km x 10 km. The ecological risk index in 811 units in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2020 and 2030 was calculated. Results showed that under current development scenario, areas converted from low to high ecological risk grade and from high to low ecological risk grade from 2020 to 2030 would be higher than those from 2000 to 2010. Area with high ecological risk would increase significantly in the future, i.e., ecological risk in coastal zones of Shandong Province would aggravate if the land use change trend in the past decade lasts in the future. The ecological risk showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation from 2000 to 2030. The "hot spot" areas of ecological risk were mainly distributed in the northern coastal area of Binzhou, the eastern coastal area of Dongying, the hilly area in the southern part of Weifang and Yantai, and coastal area of Qingdao. Some suggestions were put forward. Firstly, regional cooperation should be strengthened to prevent the ecological risk. Secondly, measures of risk management should be reinforced in "hot spot" areas where high ecological risk values cluster. Moreover, adjustments of regional land use patterns should be promoted, rationally planning land use in future.
; 邸向红
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