By the methods of grey prediction model GM（1,1） and curve fitting method,a model applicable to coastal zone was established to estimate the water pollution load of land source.The model was applied to Yantai City to forecast the main pollution load in the following five years（2009-2013） in the current level of development.The conclusions are： domestic wastewater occupies the largest proportion of point source pollution,the management of which should be strengthened by government;industrial wastewater discharge per ten thousand RMB production value reduces yearly,at the same time,its total discharge goes up year by year;tourism wastewater is increasing rapidly although its discharge ratio is the least;nitrogen and phosphorus in domestic wastewater discharge accounts for 66% of the total load of point source nitrogen and phosphorus pollution,and more than half of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution load is discharged by livestock wastewater,which has the largest potential risk of nitrogen and phosphorus pollution.
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