Socioeconomic impacts from coastal flooding in the 21st century China's coastal zone: A coupling analysis between coastal flood risk and socioeconomic development

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170187

YIC-IR

	Socioeconomic impacts from coastal flooding in the 21st century China's coastal zone: A coupling analysis between coastal flood risk and socioeconomic development
	Xu, He 1,2,3; Hou, Xiyong1 ; Pan, Shunqi 3; Bray, Michaela 3; Wang, Chengxin 4
发表期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
	2024-03-20
卷号	917 页码:14
关键词	Coastal flooding Socioeconomic impact Coupling coordination degree Coastal flood risk Socioeconomic development level China's coastal zone
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170187
通讯作者	Hou, Xiyong(xyhou@yic.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Coastal flooding due to sea level rise significantly affects socioeconomic development. The dynamic nature of coastal flood risk (CFR) and socioeconomic development level (SDL) leads to uncertainties in understanding their future interplay. This ambiguity challenges coastal nations in devising effective flood adaptation and coastal management strategies. This study quantitatively examines the expected GDP affected (EGA) and population affected (EPA) by coastal flooding in China's coastal zone (CCZ) from 2030 to 2100 under various climate scenarios (RCP2.6-SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP5). The future SDL in CCZ is assessed using a method combining the analytic hierarchy process with entropy weight. The future CFR-SDL dynamic relationship is analyzed using the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. The results reveal that in CCZ under the RCP2.6SSP1, RCP4.5-SSP2, and RCP8.5-SSP5 scenarios: by 2100, the EGA and EPA will reach $814.90 billion & 6.17 million people, $828.16 billion & 7.63 million people, and $1568.83 billion & 8.05 million people, respectively, where the coastal cities in Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces will face more obvious risks of socioeconomic losses; The total area in the CCZ at "Very high" and "High" level of socioeconomic development by 2100 is projected to reach 11.33 x 103 km2, 12.86 x 103 km2, and 15.82 x 103 km2, respectively, with the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, and Tianjin-Hebei remaining pivotal for CCZ's socioeconomic growth. Cities such as Lianyungang, Jiaxing, Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Foshan show notable CCD characteristics, and addressing the trade-off between SDL and CFR is crucial in achieving sustainable development. This study highlights the potential socioeconomic impacts of coastal flooding and emphasizes the importance of considering the interrelationship between CFR and SDL when developing coastal flood adaptation policies.
资助机构	National Natural Science Foundation of China ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
关键词[WOS]	SEA-LEVEL RISE ; SCENARIOS ; CLIMATE ; PROJECTIONS ; DELTA
研究领域[WOS]	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:001174408200001
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/34928
专题	中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所
通讯作者	Hou, Xiyong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, Yantai, Shandong, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Cardiff Univ, Hydroenvironm Res Ctr, Sch Engn, Cardiff, Wales 4.Shandong Normal Univ, Coll Geog & Environm, Jinan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, He,Hou, Xiyong,Pan, Shunqi,et al. Socioeconomic impacts from coastal flooding in the 21st century China's coastal zone: A coupling analysis between coastal flood risk and socioeconomic development[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2024,917:14.
APA	Xu, He,Hou, Xiyong,Pan, Shunqi,Bray, Michaela,&Wang, Chengxin.(2024).Socioeconomic impacts from coastal flooding in the 21st century China's coastal zone: A coupling analysis between coastal flood risk and socioeconomic development.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,917,14.
MLA	Xu, He,et al."Socioeconomic impacts from coastal flooding in the 21st century China's coastal zone: A coupling analysis between coastal flood risk and socioeconomic development".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 917(2024):14.