Nonstationary extreme value analysis of temperature extremes in China | |
Gao, Meng; Zheng, Hongzhen | |
发表期刊 | STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT |
ISSN | 1436-3240 |
2018-05 | |
卷号 | 32期号:5页码:1299-1315 |
关键词 | Temperature extremes GEV Non-stationarity Return level Atmospheric circulation |
研究领域 | Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources |
DOI | 10.1007/s00477-017-1482-0 |
产权排序 | [Gao, Meng; Zheng, Hongzhen] Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, 17 Chunhui Rd, Yantai 264003, Peoples R China; [Zheng, Hongzhen] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
作者部门 | 海岸带信息集成与综合管理实验室 |
英文摘要 | In a changing climate, the common assumption of stationarity of climate extremes has been increasingly challenged, raising the need to incorporate non-stationarity in extreme value modeling. In this study, quantile regression is used to identify the trends of annual temperature extremes and their correlations with two large climate patterns, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) at 357 stations in China. Statistical significant positive trends and correlations between warm (or cold) temperature extremes and WPSH (or AO) have been detected at most stations. The influence of WPSH on warm extremes is significant in southern China, while the AO mainly affects the cold extremes in northern and eastern China. Then, annual temperature extremes are fitted to generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions with time-varying parameters. The summer (or winter) mean daily maximum (or minimum) temperatures and two climate indices, the WPSH index and the AO index, are chosen as covariates. In total, 16 candidate GEV distribution models are constructed, and the best fitting model with the lowest Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is selected. The 20-year return levels of annual warm (or cold) extremes in the period 1961-1980 and 1991-2010 are computed and compared. The changes of 20-year return levels of annual warm and cold extremes are jointly determined by trend and distributional changes of annual temperature extremes. Analysis of large scale atmospheric circulation changes indicate that a strengthening anticyclonic circulation and increasing geopotential height in recent decades may have contributed to the changes in temperature extremes in China. |
文章类型 | Article |
资助机构 | Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS [2016195] ; CAS Knowledge Innovation Project [KZCX2-EW-QN209] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [31570423] |
收录类别 | SCI |
语种 | 英语 |
关键词[WOS] | CLIMATE-CHANGE ; QUANTILE REGRESSION ; PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; ARCTIC OSCILLATION ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; TRENDS ; RISK ; SIMULATIONS ; VARIABILITY ; STATIONARY |
研究领域[WOS] | Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000429464900007 |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/24371 |
专题 | 中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室_海岸带信息集成与战略规划研究中心 中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, 17 Chunhui Rd, Yantai 264003, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Gao, Meng,Zheng, Hongzhen. Nonstationary extreme value analysis of temperature extremes in China[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2018,32(5):1299-1315. |
APA | Gao, Meng,&Zheng, Hongzhen.(2018).Nonstationary extreme value analysis of temperature extremes in China.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,32(5),1299-1315. |
MLA | Gao, Meng,et al."Nonstationary extreme value analysis of temperature extremes in China".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT 32.5(2018):1299-1315. |
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