| Spatially downscaling GCMs outputs to project changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st Century | |
Li, Zhi1,2; Zheng, Fen-Li3,4; Liu, Wen-Zhao3,4; Jiang, De-Juan5
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| 发表期刊 | GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE
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| ISSN | 0921-8181 |
| 2012-02-01 | |
| 卷号 | 82-83期号:.页码:65-73 |
| 关键词 | Climate Change Extreme Temperature Events Loess Plateau Spatial Downscaling |
| 产权排序 | [Li, Zhi] NW A&F Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; [Li, Zhi] NW A&F Univ, Inst Water Saving Agr Arid Areas China, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; [Zheng, Fen-Li; Liu, Wen-Zhao] CAS, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; [Zheng, Fen-Li; Liu, Wen-Zhao] MWR, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; [Jiang, De-Juan] Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, Yantai 264003, Peoples R China |
| 通讯作者 | Li, Z (reprint author), NW A&F Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China. lizhibox@126.com |
| 作者部门 | 滨海湿地实验室 |
| 英文摘要 | A simple transfer function method is used to spatially downscale extreme precipitation and temperature indices of six GCMs (CNRM-CM3, GFDL-CM2.1, INM-CM3.0, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3.2_M and NCAR-PCM) under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) from grid outputs to target station to project their potential spatiotemporal changes on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st century. GCMs project that extreme climate events will keep the present change trend, i.e. longer heatwave duration and growing season length, less cold extremes, smaller annual extreme temperature range, more frequent and intense precipitation, and longer drought duration; and climate models suggest that the changes during the 21st century are a further amplification of those at present. Spatial variations exist in the changes of extreme indices, the greatest changes will occur in the southeast and northwest region for extreme precipitation indices while in the north and southeast region for extreme temperature events. The projected changes in extreme climate will possibly bring great impacts on the soil losses and agriculture on the Loess Plateau and countermeasures should be planned.; A simple transfer function method is used to spatially downscale extreme precipitation and temperature indices of six GCMs (CNRM-CM3, GFDL-CM2.1, INM-CM3.0, IPSL-CM4, MIROC3.2_M and NCAR-PCM) under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) from grid outputs to target station to project their potential spatiotemporal changes on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st century. GCMs project that extreme climate events will keep the present change trend, i.e. longer heatwave duration and growing season length, less cold extremes, smaller annual extreme temperature range, more frequent and intense precipitation, and longer drought duration; and climate models suggest that the changes during the 21st century are a further amplification of those at present. Spatial variations exist in the changes of extreme indices, the greatest changes will occur in the southeast and northwest region for extreme precipitation indices while in the north and southeast region for extreme temperature events. The projected changes in extreme climate will possibly bring great impacts on the soil losses and agriculture on the Loess Plateau and countermeasures should be planned. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| 文章类型 | Article |
| 资助机构 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41101022, 51179161]; National Science & Technology Supporting Plan[2006BAD09B09] |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 关键词[WOS] | CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT ; RIVER-BASIN ; SOIL-EROSION ; MODEL OUTPUT ; VARIABILITY ; UNCERTAINTIES ; 20TH-CENTURY ; SIMULATIONS ; HYDROLOGY ; VARIABLES |
| 研究领域[WOS] | Physical Geography ; Geology |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000300922000006 |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/5481 |
| 专题 | 中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室_滨海湿地实验室 |
| 作者单位 | 1.NW A&F Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 2.NW A&F Univ, Inst Water Saving Agr Arid Areas China, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 4.MWR, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, Yantai 264003, Peoples R China |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Li, Zhi,Zheng, Fen-Li,Liu, Wen-Zhao,et al. Spatially downscaling GCMs outputs to project changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st Century[J]. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,2012,82-83(.):65-73. |
| APA | Li, Zhi,Zheng, Fen-Li,Liu, Wen-Zhao,&Jiang, De-Juan.(2012).Spatially downscaling GCMs outputs to project changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st Century.GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE,82-83(.),65-73. |
| MLA | Li, Zhi,et al."Spatially downscaling GCMs outputs to project changes in extreme precipitation and temperature events on the Loess Plateau of China during the 21st Century".GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE 82-83..(2012):65-73. |
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