Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta, China

doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.010

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	Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta, China
	Xiao-Li WANG1,2 ; Ai-Qing FENG 3; Xi-Yong HOU1,2 ; Qing-Chen CHAO 3; Bai-Yuan SONG 4; Yu-Bin LIU 5; Qi-Guang WANG 6; He XU 1,7; Yu-Xin ZHANG 1,2; Dong LI 1,2
发表期刊	Advances in Climate Change Research
ISSN	1674-9278
	2024-02-01
卷号	15 期号:1 页码:134-147
关键词	Climate change Anthropogenic activities Compound extreme risk Coastal wetlands Yellow River Delta
研究领域	理学::地理学
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2024.01.010
英文摘要	The coastal wetlands of the Yellow River Delta (YRD) in China are crucial for their valuable resources, environmental significance, and economic contributions. However, these wetlands are also vulnerable to the dual threats of climate change and human disturbances. Despite substantial attention to the historical shifts in YRD's coastal wetlands, uncertainties remain regarding their future trajectory in the face of compound risks from climate change and anthropogenic activities. Based on a range of remote sensing data sources, this study undertakes a comprehensive investigation into the evolution of YRD's coastal wetlands between 2000 and 2020. Subsequently, the potential fate of coastal wetlands is thoroughly analyzed through the Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) simulation using System Dynamic-Future Land Use Simulation (SD-FLUS) model and the extreme water levels projection integrated future sea-level rise, storm surge, and astronomical high tide in 2030, 2050, and 2100 under scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Results revealed that YRD's coastal wetlands underwent a marked reduction, shrinking by 1688.72 km2 from 2000 to 2020. This decline was mostly attributed to the substantial expansion in the areas of artificial wetlands (increasing by 823.78 km2), construction land (increasing by 767.71 km2), and shallow water (increasing by 274.58 km2). Looking ahead to 2030e2100, the fate of coastal wetlands appears to diverge based on different scenarios. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the area of coastal wetland is projected to experience considerable growth. In contrast, the SSP5-8.5 scenario anticipates a notable decrease in coastal wetlands. Relative to the inundated area suffered from the current extreme water levels, the study projects a decrease of 6.8%e10.6% in submerged coastal wetlands by 2030 and 9.4%e18.2% by 2050 across all scenarios. In 2100, these percentages are projected to decrease by 0.4 % (SSP2-4.5) and 27.1% (SSP5-8.5), but increase by 35.7% (SSP1-2.6). Results suggest that coastal wetlands in the YRD will face a serious compound risk from climate change and intensified human activities in the future, with climate change being the dominant factor. More efficient and forward-looking measures must be implemented to prioritize the conservation and management of coastal wetland ecosystems to address the challenges, especially those posed by climate change.
文章类型	Article
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
关键词[WOS]	Climate change ; Anthropogenic activities ; Compound extreme risk ; Coastal wetlands ; Yellow River Delta
研究领域[WOS]	Environmental Sciences ; Coastal Wetlands
WOS记录号	WOS:001172812200001
引用统计	被引频次：2[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/34396
专题	个人在本单位外知识产出
通讯作者	Ai-Qing FENG
作者单位	1.CAS Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes and Ecological Remediation, Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yantai 264003, China 2.Shandong Key Laboratory of Coastal Environmental Processes, Yantai 264003, China 3.China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081, China 4.Tongji Urban Planning Design Research Institute, Shanghai 200092, China 5.School of Geography and Tourism, Qilu Normal University, Jinan 250200, China 6.China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China 7.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiao-Li WANG,Ai-Qing FENG,Xi-Yong HOU,et al. Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta, China[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2024,15(1):134-147.
APA	Xiao-Li WANG.,Ai-Qing FENG.,Xi-Yong HOU.,Qing-Chen CHAO.,Bai-Yuan SONG.,...&Dong LI.(2024).Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta, China.Advances in Climate Change Research,15(1),134-147.
MLA	Xiao-Li WANG,et al."Compound extreme inundation risk of coastal wetlands caused by climate change and anthropogenic activities in the Yellow River Delta, China".Advances in Climate Change Research 15.1(2024):134-147.

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