基于3E模型的中国碳排放地域差异及碳排放空间计算研究

	基于3E模型的中国碳排放地域差异及碳排放空间计算研究
	学位论文
学位类型	博士
导师	高志强
	2015-03
学位授予单位	中国科学院大学
学位授予地点	北京
关键词	碳排放地域差异碳排放空间中国
摘要	2050年全球增温不超过“2℃”阈值，很多发达、不发达国家都强烈要求中国减少CO₂排放量，在此情况下中国既要保证经济发展又要争取更大的碳排放空间，客观分析中国的碳排放量以及积极探讨基于公平的碳排放权分配方案就显得尤为重要。 CO₂排放，但广大的森林和草地面积产生的巨大碳汇能力也大大减少了进入大气中的CO₂。为了综合客观地分析中国各省市的碳排放情况，作者尝试从土地利用的角度进行探讨，也就是既考虑承载碳排放的建设用地发挥的碳源作用又考虑各地区林地和草地发挥的碳汇作用。另外为了解决中国未来碳排放总配额如何在各省市间公平、合理分配的问题，作者在前人研究的基础上，尝试基于生态、公平和效率构建了3E模型并运用这个模型进行了中国碳排放的时空变化分析和中国各省市未来2013～2050年的碳排放空间计算。得到如下结论：（1）基于3E模型的中国碳排放空间差异分布规律不同于单纯的碳排放总量的分布规律，呈现出以环渤海圈为中心的环形分布。中国目前有近一半省市的碳排放整体是处在生态系统良性循环、碳排放公平和经济效率较高的状态下。（2）3E模型计算出的中国2013~2050碳排放空间较之于目前国内常用的人均累排放，不但考虑了人均而且更多兼顾了区域的生态、经济与公平，结果更加理想。（3）中国沿海省市人口密集、碳排放大，本文通过对沿海省市碳排放的详细分析发现其近年来碳排放强度的降低幅度也很大，今后拥有一定的碳排放空间，实现碳减排目标相对较容易。（4）中国要实现2030年减排目标，需要遵循因地制宜的原则，确定区域差别化的增汇减排途径。希望本研究能为碳排放的地域差异研究提供方法支持，研究结果能为将来国家范围内的碳排放权分配及碳排放政策的制定提供参考，为国际碳排放权益的争取提供思路。
其他摘要	Today the international community attaches great importance to the climate warming. Carbon emissions, as the main considered subject, its emissions directly determine the increasing extent of the average global temperature rises. Then the reasonable distribution of the carbon emission rights is not only a pure problem about natural science, but also problems related to the social and economic development, which will inevitably involve the interest games between different countries and industries. So now there is no unified plan in the world besides intensity distribution scheme.In order to ensure the global warming does not exceed 2 ℃ "threshold" by the year of 2050, many developed and underdeveloped countries urge China to reduce carbon emissions. In this case, China must strive for greater carbon emissions space at the time of ensuring its economic development. Then the reasonable calculation of its carbon emissions is particularly important, and so is the fair allocation of carbon emission rights. The author thinks that when a large amount of CO₂ emissions are produced in China during it’s the financial development, they are also greatly absorbed by the vast forests and grassland because of their carbon sequestration abilities. In this view, in order to discuss China’s carbon emissions objectively, the author tried to calculate them from the perspective of land use, which includes both the carbon emissions from the construction land and the carbon sink from the woodland and grassland. On the other hand, it is a problem for China to allocate its total carbon emissions reasonably among each provinces and cities based on fair. To solve it, the author attempted to establish a 3E model from its ecology, equity and efficiency based on the previous studies. Then the spatial and temporal variations of China's carbon emissions were analyzed and the future carbon emission space from 2013 to 2050 in each Chinese province was calculated with this model. Here are the conclusions: (1) The spatial distributions of China's carbon emissions based on 3E model are different from the distribution of pure carbon emissions, which presents the circular distribution centered as Bohai economic circle areas. And half of the provinces in China are in good conditions from the aspects of their ecology, equity and economic efficiency. (2) The carbon emission space calculated with 3E model are different from the commonly used per capita emissions, lying in that they consider not only the per capita but also regional ecological, economic and equity, which means more ideal. (3) As the carbon emissions in Chinese coastal zone are great with its large population density and rapid economic growth, the author analyzed them detailed and reached the conclusions that the reduction of carbon intensity is also greater in coastal zone areas in recent years, and its carbon emission space are middle and it is easy to achieve its carbon intensity decrease aim. (4) To achieve the emission reduction targets in 2030, China needs to follow the principle of adjusting measures to local conditions, and determine regional ways to increase its carbon sink and reduce its carbon emissions. This study will provide ideas for the regional differences of carbon emissions and also make references both to the allocation of carbon emission rights in the future and to the determining of the carbon polices. And it may be a way for China to strive for the international carbon emissions rights.
语种	中文
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/7927
专题	中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所知识产出_学位论文
作者单位	1.中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所 2.中国科学院大学
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	学位论文. 基于3E模型的中国碳排放地域差异及碳排放空间计算研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2015.

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