Projections of coastal flooding under different RCP scenarios over the 21st century: A case study of China's coastal zone

doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2022.108155

	Projections of coastal flooding under different RCP scenarios over the 21st century: A case study of China's coastal zone
	Xu, He 1,2,3,4,5; Hou, Xiyong1,3,4,5 ; Li, Dong 1,3,4,5; Zheng, Xiangyang 1,3,4,5; Fan, Chao 1,2,3,4,5
发表期刊	ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE
ISSN	0272-7714
	2022-12-05
卷号	279 页码:13
关键词	Sea level rise (SLR) Coastal flooding inundation China?s coastal zone (CCZ) Temporal and spatial characters
DOI	10.1016/j.ecss.2022.108155
通讯作者	Hou, Xiyong(xyhou@yic.ac.cn)
英文摘要	Among sea level rise (SLR)-induced threats to coastal regions, flooding inundation is considered the most serious, especially in China's coastal zone (CCZ). Previous attempts to simulate the inundation area caused by SLR at the macro spatial scale usually employed the bathtub model based on a large number of historical tide station data. However, these efforts mainly focused on simplifying the calculation of the inundation process at a large scale, but failed to improve the accuracy mainly due to the failure to exclude isolated depressions. Here, based on regional sea level data of the Integrated Climate Data Center (ICDC), the University of Hamburg, a physical ocean model (Finite Volume Coast and Ocean Model, FVCOM) was employed to simulate the maximum possible regional SLR in offshore China from 2021 to 2100 under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, and the hydraulic connectivity model was applied based on multi-source data to improve the simulation accuracy of the inundation area. Through these improved methods, the maximum possible inundation characters of CCZ over the 21st century were observed as follows: (1) Under RCP2.6/4.5/8.5 scenarios, the macro spatial patterns of inundation areas are similar, with the inundation area mainly distributing in the coastal areas around the Bo Hai, the coastal areas from Jiangsu to the estuary of the Yangtze River, the Pearl River Delta, and the western coastal areas of Taiwan, and the inundation area gradually expands and spreads over time. (2) Under the three scenarios, the maximum possible inundation area shows a wavelike rising trend, and by 2100, the inundation area is expected to exceed 48.89 x 103 km2 (RCP 2.6) and reach a maximum of 53.50 x 103 km2 (RCP 8.5). (3) There are significant differences in the inundation depth and flood frequency under the three scenarios, with the inundation characters of the high-emission scenario being the most extreme. Overall, our work can provide meaningful information for proper coastal urban planning, disaster prevention, and mitigation measures selection in China. The methodology can also be used for predicting the inundation areas in other coastal countries facing the threat of SLR.
资助机构	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ; National Natural Science Foundation of China
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
关键词[WOS]	SEA-LEVEL RISE ; STORM-SURGE ; VULNERABILITY ; WETLAND
研究领域[WOS]	Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Oceanography
WOS记录号	WOS:000890637600004
引用统计	被引频次：7[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/31910
专题	中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室中国科学院海岸带环境过程与生态修复重点实验室_海岸带信息集成与战略规划研究中心
通讯作者	Hou, Xiyong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, Yantai 264003, Shandong, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Yantai Inst Coastal Zone Res, CAS Key Lab Coastal Environm Proc & Ecol Remediat, Yantai 264003, Shandong, Peoples R China 4.Shandong Key Lab Coastal Environm Proc, Yantai 264003, Shandong, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xu, He,Hou, Xiyong,Li, Dong,et al. Projections of coastal flooding under different RCP scenarios over the 21st century: A case study of China's coastal zone[J]. ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE,2022,279:13.
APA	Xu, He,Hou, Xiyong,Li, Dong,Zheng, Xiangyang,&Fan, Chao.(2022).Projections of coastal flooding under different RCP scenarios over the 21st century: A case study of China's coastal zone.ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE,279,13.
MLA	Xu, He,et al."Projections of coastal flooding under different RCP scenarios over the 21st century: A case study of China's coastal zone".ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE 279(2022):13.