黄河三角洲地区近50年气温和降水的演变特征及R/S分析

	黄河三角洲地区近50年气温和降水的演变特征及R/S分析
	宋德彬
学位类型	硕士
导师	于君宝 ; 王振宇
	2016-05-16
学位授予单位	中国科学院大学
学位授予地点	北京
学位专业	环境工程
关键词	黄河三角洲气温降水演变特征 R/s分析
摘要	黄河三角洲地区在海陆相互作用下，其内部的生态环境极其脆弱，而剧烈的人类活动致使该脆弱的生态系统下垫面变化更为明显。大面积天然湿地被开垦和景观格局的剧变直接影响了湿地功能，深刻影响湿地下垫面热量平衡和蒸散发特征，从而影响区域的气温和降水量。本论文利用中国地面气候资料日值数据集逐日气温和降水量插值数据，采用线性趋势分析、滑动距平和Mann-Kendall突变检测，分析了黄河三角洲地区1961-2010年间的温度和降水变化的总体趋势和季节特征，并利用重标极差分析（R/S）和非周期循环分析研究了气温、降水序列的Hurst指数和非周期循环的循环长度，结论如下：（1）黄河三角洲地区过去50年间平均温上升1.85°C，倾斜率达0.37°C /10a，冬季增温趋势最为明显，达0.68°C /10a，年平均温于1993年发生突变，进入显著升温阶段。（2）年最低温累积升高5.50°C，于1985年发生突变，对年平均温拉升明显，季节分异规律不显著，呈全年普遍增温趋势；年最高温突变节点不明显，年际和季节变化规律不显著。（3）年降水量呈-53.2 mm/10a的下降趋势，50年间累计减少266mm，约占同时期年降水量平均值的43.7%。夏季水量减少尤为显著，倾斜率达-43.56 mm/10a。年降水量的突变节点不明显，极端降水概率与强度平和中保持稳定。（4）气象要素时间序列的R/S分析表明，黄河三角洲地区年平均温、年最高温、年最低温和年降水量序列均存在Hurst现象，但对过去的记忆长度不同，年降水量和年最低温的变化趋势可保持10年，年平均温为8年，年最高温波动性较强，仅能保持6年。（5）黄河三角洲地区正表现出以冬季升温、夏季干旱为主要特征的暖干化气候趋势，其人为驱动机制，可归结为以油气田开发和农田开垦为首的人类活动导致的下垫面改变，由于该区域植物生长季集中于夏季，因此在研究区土壤盐渍化较严重的背景下，夏季降水量减少导致的干旱胁迫已成为影响区域生态安全的主要影响因素。
其他摘要	While ecological environment in The Yellow River Delta area is extremely fragile under the interaction of sea and land, the changing in underlying surface driven by intense human activity make this situation more serious. The reclamation process in nature wetland and landscape pattern affects the wetland function directly, which has a deep influence on the heat balance and steam emission characteristics of wetland surface, and result in the diversification of temperature and precipitation in this region. Based on daily temperature and precipitation interpolation data from Daily Dataset of Chinese Terrestrial Climate Data, the general trend and seasonal characteristics of the average annual temperature and annual precipitation changes during 1961-2010 in costal wetland region of the Yellow River Delta were analyzed with linear trend analysis, slip anomaly analysis and Mann-Kendall test, and rescaled range analysis (R/S) combined with non-periodic cycle analysis is used to calculate the Hurst index and non-cycle length of meteorological series. The results showed: (1) The average annual temperature in YRD Delta increased 1.85°C and its linear trend rate reached 0.37°C/10a, especially mainly occurred in winter, reached 0.68°C /10a. The annual average temperature changed abruptly in 1993 and a significant warming period was coming. (2) The annual minimum temperature increased 5.50°C in 50 years and changed abruptly in 1985, showed obvious pulling effect in the annual average temperature's warming. But its seasonal variation is not obvious, and presented warming trend in whole year. The break point and seasonal variation of the annual maximum temperature is both not significant. (3) The accumulated reduction of precipitation reached 121.42mm which mainly occurred in summer, accounted for 19.9% of average annual precipitation. The days of heavy rainfall and maximum continues drought decreased significantly, while the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation kept a stable level. (4) The R/S analysis on meteorological series illustrate the Hurst phenomenon is both existed in annual average temperature, the annual maximum temperature, the annual minimum temperature and the annual precipitation series, but showed different non-cycle length. The annual precipitation and the annual minimum temperature series can hold for 10 years while the annual average temperature series can only hold for 8 years. The annual maximum temperature series showed severely oscillations for 6 years non-cycle length. (5) The warming and drought trend with characteristics of temperature rising in winter and drought in summer was obvious in costal wetland region of the Yellow River Delta. The underlying surface changes resulting from human activities was an important driving factor. Under the background of severely soil salinization and summer growing season, The loss of rainfall in summer has become one of the predominant factors for the regional ecological environment safety.
语种	中文
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.yic.ac.cn/handle/133337/17534
专题	中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所知识产出_学位论文
作者单位	中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所
第一作者单位	中国科学院烟台海岸带研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	宋德彬. 黄河三角洲地区近50年气温和降水的演变特征及R/S分析[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2016.

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